RETAIL
A solid foundation for further value creation
Retail real estate has long been a standard component of institutional portfolios. Following a period of adjustment driven by changing supply and the growth of online consumer behaviour, the sector has shown clear signs of recovery in recent years. This is evident in rising visitor numbers, increasing rental activity, stabilising valuations, and renewed interest from both domestic and international investors. Retail therefore remains a relevant and resilient asset class.
The segment’s resilience is further demonstrated by stabilising rents and growing tenant demand. At the same time, the evolving market dynamics require greater selectivity: investors are focusing primarily on locations offering economies of scale, strong tenants, and properties that meet sustainability criteria.
Beyond stable rental income, the sector also contributes socially. It strengthens local amenities, stimulates economic activity, and supports sustainable urban development. In particular, convenience retail and prime high streets show a solid outlook. Their rental income tends to move in line with inflation and presents opportunities for steady capital growth.
The sector is also influenced by megatrends such as Climate & Energy and Technology & Artificial Intelligence. Collaboration between property owners and tenants, for example through green leases, promotes sustainability. At the same time, AI enables a better understanding of consumer behaviour, optimisation of footfall, and early identification of operational trends.
Increasing attention to sustainability, innovation, and experiential retail presents opportunities to make portfolios future-proof. Combined with a more stable macroeconomic climate and favourable financing conditions, this provides a solid foundation for further growth and value creation.
This chapter explores the key trends and developments within the Dutch retail and investment market. It concludes with an investment perspective, highlighting strategic considerations for institutional investors in retail real estate.
Lijnbaan, Rotterdam
Marktdynamiek
Recovery, opportunities… but be selective
After a period of caution — caused by economic headwinds, changing consumer behaviour, and the impact of COVID-19, which temporarily pressured both rental income and valuations — the user market has gradually recovered in recent years. The increased investment activity observed in 2025 is primarily the result of this earlier recovery, reinforced by rising consumer spending and a more stable macroeconomic climate. In Q3 2025, the cumulative investment volume reached €883 million, significantly higher than the volume recorded at the same point a year earlier (source: Cushman & Wakefield). For the full year 2025, a total volume of approximately €1.3 billion is expected, returning the market to pre-pandemic levels.
Although geopolitical tensions, such as trade unrest and the war in Ukraine, persist, sentiment in the Dutch retail real estate market remains positive. The expected interest rate cut by the ECB in the second half of 2025 creates additional space for property investment and strengthens the recovering market dynamics. Private investors are also returning to city centres; Dutch Box-3 investors are shifting their focus from residential to commercial real estate (source: NVM).
At the same time, institutional investors remain selective: positions in standalone properties are being reduced, while attention is shifting to larger concentrations in prime city centres where they already own real estate and where expanding retailers are active.
Convenience retail continues to be a safe haven for many (institutional) investors, as proven during previous periods of crisis and uncertainty. This segment combines stable rental income with strong demand from both consumers and retailers in the supermarket sector, making it attractive within a diversified portfolio.
Meanwhile, the re-entry of international capital, including French SCPI funds, is placing additional pressure on demand. Whereas these investors were previously active primarily in the value-add segment, their focus is now also moving towards Core and Core+ assets. This trend is exemplified by the recent joint venture between Wereldhave and French Sofidy (Tikehau Group) for the acquisition of Stadshart Zoetermeer. Such collaborations are increasing, as international investors seek access to stable Dutch convenience and daily-needs assets, while local parties can share risks and accelerate acquisitions through JV structures.
As competition intensifies and interest rate prospects improve, initial yields are expected to decline slightly, with further effects into 2026. Market demand is characterised by an emphasis on core quality, sustainability, and location, evolving towards a more balanced structure in which these elements are central. Investors who proactively enhance portfolio quality and invest in future-proof assets with strong tenants can benefit from the growing demand for stable, economically resilient investments.
Strengthened fundamentals and improved financing conditions
The positive developments in the Dutch retail real estate market are laying the foundation for a new investment cycle. The market is showing clear signs of improvement: rents are rising, occupancy levels are increasing, and the growth of online sales is slowing. Footfall has returned to pre-pandemic levels, and visits to urban retail districts remain a consistent part of consumer behaviour.
The financing environment is also turning more favourable. As fundamentals strengthen and risks diminish, lenders are showing renewed confidence, resulting in sharper interest rates and more attractive loan terms. The focus is shifting from exclusively prime high streets and convenience centres to a broader range of retail real estate segments. Mid-sized to large centres with diversified retail mixes are once again eligible for financing.
These improved conditions are making transactions more accessible and driving higher market activity. Sentiment around larger district centres has strengthened notably over the past year, and this trend is expected to continue. Lenders prefer parties with a long-term investment horizon, while international investors are increasingly targeting large operational district centres or portfolios with a strong convenience component.
In line with this, substantial transactions are re-entering the market. Large-scale deals are occurring more frequently, signalling renewed confidence and a longer investment outlook among investors. In a European context, the market is also much better balanced than in previous years: bid-ask spreads have narrowed, indicating healthier and more transparent price formation.
“Recovery in demand, confidence, and financing is ushering in a new and stronger investment phase for Dutch retail real estate.”
FIGURE 1: Vacancy in GFA by retail area type (as % of SFA)
Source: Locatus (2025)
FIGURE 2: Footfall in high streets
Source: Locatus (2025)
Larger Core+/Value-Add centres are gaining ground among investors
The investor landscape in the Dutch retail real estate market is undergoing a clear shift. Institutional investors and real estate funds are once again taking the lead, signalling a more structural and professional engagement with the sector. At the same time, interest in large-scale operational district centres is rising an important change after several years in which smaller convenience-led assets dominated investor preferences. Recent transactions, including Stadshart Zoetermeer, Leidsche Rijn Centrum, Winkelhof Leiderdorp, and Sint-Jorisplein Amersfoort, illustrate this turning point: assets that were largely absent from investment volumes in 2023 and 2024 are now firmly back in demand.
The focus is moving beyond purely defensive strategies toward opportunities for value creation, particularly in medium-sized and large centres. During the COVID period, neighbourhood centres with strong supermarket anchors and daily-needs tenants proved their resilience as stable, crisis-proof assets. Today, investors are increasingly willing to re-enter larger centres, as their risk profile is no longer viewed as significantly higher. Still, required levered returns often exceed 15 percent—well above traditional core strategies.
In 2025, gross initial yields for medium-sized and large centres range between 8 and 10 percent. Combined with declining vacancy rates, these yields offer an attractive entry point for Core+ and Value-add investors. Although larger centres typically experience higher tenant turnover, this dynamism creates opportunities for repositioning. Turnover enables optimisation of the retail mix and a better alignment with the lifestyle and needs of the local customer base. Investors seeking higher returns and capable of driving value through active asset management are well positioned to benefit from the current pricing in this segment.
The market remains diverse and dynamic. Some centres are already stable and future-proof, while others require redevelopment or even broader area-led transformation. What they share is clear potential for sustainable value creation—provided they are managed effectively. Meanwhile, investors are becoming increasingly selective: risk management, sustainability, and location quality are more prominent than ever on the investment agenda.
Strategic role of retail real estate in institutional portfolios
Beyond the improved investment conditions, retail real estate plays a distinctive role within institutional portfolios. The segment provides stable cash flows and serves as a barometer of the broader economy. Particularly during periods of economic uncertainty and shifting market dynamics, retail has proven resilient—typically experiencing less severe valuation swings than other asset classes (Figure 5)—while simultaneously offering opportunities for strategic transformation to future-proof portfolios.
These characteristics make retail a valuable component of a diversified real estate portfolio: it combines stable rental income, a direct link to the economy, and opportunities for strategic growth. Retail investments recover relatively quickly from cyclical fluctuations and remain attractive to investors seeking both defensive income and opportunities for value creation. The segment therefore offers a balanced mix of inflation protection, diversification, and strategic value creation within institutional portfolios.
Inflation-linked income
Retail real estate clearly distinguishes itself from other real estate segments through the inflation-hedging characteristics of its net operating income (NOI). This is primarily because rental increases are not capped by regulation, as is the case with residential real estate. Moreover, international retailers are increasingly adopting turnover-based rents. This structure benefits both landlord and tenant: landlords participate in the tenant’s revenue, which encourages investment, while tenants gain partial protection against underperformance. Turnover rent can also help bridge the gap when market rents are not yet achievable and can reduce the risk of vacancy or tenant default.
As a result, net operating income in retail real estate moves directly in line with inflation, providing landlords with a robust hedge against value erosion due to rising costs.
Historically, this characteristic is well supported: over the past twenty years, the correlation between retail rental income and inflation has been 0.64, significantly higher than for residential, office, or industrial real estate (Figure 3).
This strong linkage to price growth ensures that retail real estate can play a key role within a diversified portfolio. It functions as a resilient income engine and provides an effective hedge against inflation risk. For investors seeking sustainable cashflow growth and protection of purchasing power, retail real estate is therefore an attractive and strategically relevant asset class.
FIGURE 3: Inflation hedge: NOI growth versus inflation (20-year period)
Source: MSCI, Oxford Economics (2025)
Brinkmann Grote Markt, Haarlem
Value growth and risk perception
Although retail real estate income is closely linked to inflation, the relationship between inflation and capital value growth is less direct. This is because real estate value is determined not only by NOI but also by movements in yields, which reflect investor risk perception. Structural sector risks—such as the rise of e-commerce, changing consumer behaviour, tenant bankruptcies, and vacancy in secondary locations—impact yields and can temper value growth.
The sector is also highly heterogeneous. Prime high-street locations and supermarket-anchored convenience retail demonstrate stable performance, while non-prime fashion locations are more sensitive to cyclical fluctuations and prolonged vacancy. The moderate growth observed in retail during past recovery periods (for example, 2014–2019) has driven necessary innovation within the sector. Whereas industrial real estate benefitted relatively easily from e-commerce, this trend has compelled retail to reinvent the physical store.
This has led to omnichannel concepts, where stores increasingly function as logistical hubs for ‘Click & Collect’ and as experiential destinations offering unique, non-digital experiences. This strategic transformation enhances the quality and future-readiness of retail real estate, with value increasingly determined by location and customer experience rather than scale alone.
Diversification benefits within real estate portfolios
Retail real estate offers a compelling diversification benefit within broader real estate portfolios. A correlation analysis over the past twenty years shows that retail performance has only a limited relationship with other real estate segments, such as industrial, office, and residential assets (Figure 4). This low correlation indicates that the underlying drivers of retail returns—such as consumer behaviour, local shopping provision, and tenant mix—differ fundamentally from the factors determining the value and income of, for example, logistics or office assets.
Precisely because of these distinct market dynamics, retail functions as a stabilising component within a diversified portfolio. When other sectors are affected by sector-specific risks—such as structural office vacancy or cyclical swings in logistics—retail income tends to remain relatively resilient. This reduces volatility and contributes to more predictable cashflows. For investors seeking a strategic balance between defensive stability and growth potential, retail real estate therefore represents a valuable addition to the portfolio.
FIGURE 4: Diversification: Correlation matrix (20-year period)
Bron: MSCI (2025)
A barometer of economic activity
Retail real estate provides one of the most direct reflections of consumer economic health. When households increase spending, this is almost immediately translated into higher retail turnover, and consequently, stronger performance in the retail real estate market. Historically, retail has often served as a reliable leading indicator of economic growth. During the strong expansion period from 2005 to 2007, the sector recorded comparable or even higher growth than other major real estate segments, including offices and logistics.
The cyclical nature of retail is also clearly visible during periods of recovery. Following the financial crisis, the sector rebounded in 2010 alongside GDP growth, and a similar pattern was observed after the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, when consumer spending quickly recovered thanks to stimulus measures and pent-up demand.
A key difference compared to the residential market is that retail is less constrained by monetary factors such as interest rate increases (Figure 5). While higher interest rates directly affect housing affordability and financing, retail is much more closely linked to consumers’ disposable income. As soon as the economy shows signs of recovery and purchasing power returns, retail typically responds quickly and visibly. This makes the sector both sensitive to economic fluctuations and a clear barometer of consumer spending.
FIGURE 5: Capital growth versus economic growth
Source: MSCI, Oxford Economics (2025)
Investment view
Turning point in high streets presents opportunities
High streets are stronger, but evolving
Since the post-COVID period, it has become clear that consumers are returning to physical stores in large numbers. In cities such as Amsterdam, Utrecht, and Maastricht, footfall has nearly recovered to pre-pandemic levels, indicating that the appeal of the high street remains strong. This trend is expected to extend to other major cities in the coming years, provided that retail areas are strategically designed.
A key factor is that shops and shopping streets must respond to changing consumer expectations: customers are no longer only seeking products, but a complete experience. This requires investment in hospitality, attractive and distinctive brands, a mix of retail formats and leisure facilities, and a seamless integration of online and offline channels. Online trends and social media also play an important role: viral concepts can immediately influence physical retail locations, as seen with examples such as Pop Mart.
Only by embracing these principles can physical retail distinguish itself in an environment increasingly focused on convenience, experience, and inspiration. Doing so allows cities to sustain long-term footfall, which in turn creates the potential for robust rental growth (Figure 6).
“Core retail real estate does not move towards endings, but evolves — continuously adapting, continuously renewing.”
FIGURE 6: Relationship footfall and prime market rents
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Locatus (2025)
At the same time, physical retail is under pressure from growing competition from international online platforms such as Shein and Temu. Retailers, particularly in the mid-range fashion segment, are feeling margin pressures, making strategic choices essential. In the coming years, companies will need to decide whether to focus on scale, competing primarily on price, or to invest in differentiating factors such as quality, sustainability, and service.
Combining these elements with a strong omnichannel strategy will be crucial: stores that offer an attractive offline experience alongside an efficient digital presence will be better positioned to retain customers and maintain their market share in a highly competitive environment.
Experience-driven retail in an omnichannel strategy
In the coming years, physical stores will increasingly serve as brand platforms. Retail spaces are being designed more for demonstration, inspiration, and interaction rather than solely for transactions. This trend is evident in sectors such as consumer electronics (Apple, Samsung, Dyson, Sonos), toys (LEGO), and increasingly automotive: electric vehicle brands like NIO, BYD, and Polestar deliberately choose prominent retail locations to provide experiences that cannot be replicated online. A similar phenomenon is visible in fashion and sports: in Rotterdam, Nike recently opened a large flagship store, while other retailers such as New Balance and Adidas are seeking further expansion. Brands that go viral online and are highly visible on social media are also playing an increasingly important role. This online hype translates directly to the physical high street and can significantly influence footfall.
Online-first retailers are also expanding their presence on the high street. Companies such as Coolblue, My Jewellery, Ace & Tate, Pink Gellac, and Mr. Marvis demonstrate that a physical store enhances brand recognition, improves service, and strengthens customer loyalty. We expect this omnichannel approach to continue to lead the market in the years ahead.
The role of retail areas is also broadening. The share of traditional retail is gradually declining, while hospitality, services, culture, and leisure continue to grow. This shift provides opportunities to repurpose retail spaces and create areas that serve consumers throughout the day. Active investors will therefore operate with greater flexibility and adapt real estate more quickly to changing demand.
Investor risk perception of city centres is often higher than reality suggests. Currently, vacancy in the nine largest city centres is below 6 percent, compared with over 8 percent immediately after the pandemic (Figure 7). In addition, long-term vacancy—stores empty for more than one year—has been declining for years and now accounts for less than half of total vacancy. This underlines that careful city selection and meticulous location choice in prime urban areas do not result in riskier retail real estate investments.
FIGURE 7: Share of vacancy types in G9 cities (as % of SFA, high streets)
Source: Locatus (2025)
Playing field for large international retail brands
In the coming years, Dutch high streets are expected to be increasingly shaped by a number of international retail groups that operate at scale and manage broad brand portfolios. Fashion conglomerates such as Inditex, the H&M Group, Uniqlo, and TK Maxx are further expanding their physical presence by positioning multiple labels close to each other in the most attractive city locations. What consumers experience as a wide choice of styles, price points, and target groups is, in practice, a carefully orchestrated strategy by a single owner. A shopping route featuring a youth-focused trend concept, a premium label for young professionals, and a recognisable basic apparel chain thus forms a seamless brand journey within one group.
After a period of closures, international names like Bestseller and Mango are once again in growth mode. For example, Normal—owned by the Danish company Bestseller—is currently expanding with a model focused on affordable lifestyle products. Dutch retailers, such as The Sting Companies, are also clustering their store formats to increase visibility and customer flow. Their strength remains predominantly offline; some brands, such as Sting, perform less strongly online. Nevertheless, the streetscape is mainly dominated by the aforementioned international players, whose scale and recognisable concepts keep competition intense.
Physical stores remain absolutely essential for these large chains. Whereas the retail narrative previously emphasised “places to buy” and later shifted to “places to be,” the focus is now firmly returning to “places to buy”: the physical store still generates significant revenue and profit, making it indispensable to the overall performance of the chains. Prime locations deliver high footfall and allow brands to showcase their products and concepts effectively, directly contributing to financial results.
Historical data show that this trend has been underway for some time. Since 2019, the retail space on A1 locations in the G9 cities occupied by so-called “superchains” has increased by 41% (Figure 8). This share is expected to rise further, particularly in popular shopping districts such as Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Utrecht. Retailers seek maximum visibility, the highest footfall, and the largest units—conditions that dominant players can enforce thanks to their scale and strong negotiating positions.
The clustering of chain stores is further reinforced by the theory of cumulative attraction in city centres and retail concentrations, which is widely supported by research. This benefits retailers: groups can flexibly adjust their square meters, share warehouse capacity, and respond more quickly to changing sales trends within their portfolio. For real estate investors, this reduces risk as long as the market remains strong, while strengthening the dominance of capital-intensive players that capture an ever-larger share of consumer spending.
FIGURE 8: Expansion of "Superstores" at prime locations in G9 city centres
Source: Locatus (2025)
Steden- en locatieselectie
Stedenselectie
To understand and strategically leverage this dynamic, the City Ranking Model developed by Achmea Real Estate plays a crucial role. This model analyses and ranks the 47 largest Dutch cities based on variables such as:
- Catchment area: size and purchasing power of the surrounding market
- Population growth forecast
- Footfall: visitor flows and pedestrian intensity
- Urban attractiveness: tourism, culture, and quality of life
- Financial parameters: rental levels, expected rental growth, and vacancy risk
The results confirm a clear trend: the G5 cities (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague, Utrecht, and Eindhoven) remain dominant, followed by selective opportunities in G6–G9 cities. These top cities offer the strongest fundamentals and long-term potential, while the contrast with medium-sized cities continues to widen.
Within these cities, further segmentation is essential. The model combines macrodata with microanalysis of streets and subareas, distinguishing between A1 and A2 locations (core streets with the highest footfall) and peripheral areas. These insights support investors in focusing on locations with the highest liquidity, lowest vacancy, and strongest tenant demand. Figure 10 shows that, in the Rotterdam example, A-locations not only generate high footfall but also rarely experience long-term or structural vacancy when property attributes are correctly aligned.
FIGURE 9: High street city ranking
Source: Achmea Real Estate (2025)
Location quality and asset requirements
Selecting suitable retail real estate in city centres requires careful consideration of location, asset characteristics, and market dynamics. Not every street in a strong city holds the same commercial value; urban retail areas consist of segments that vary in attractiveness, rental levels, and vacancy risk.
A1 locations form the absolute core of the city, with the highest footfall and flagship stores of international brands. Here, rental levels are high and vacancy risk minimal due to strong demand. This is visually illustrated in Figure 10 around the Lijnbaan in Rotterdam. A2 locations still generate substantial traffic but combine national retailers and high-quality hospitality with slightly lower initial yields. B locations stand out through their own identity, often catering to niche concepts, hospitality, and leisure, making them attractive for experiential retail formats. This mix reflects the trend that shopping is increasingly a leisure activity, where enjoying a coffee or lunch contributes to the overall experience of a successful day out.
When selecting assets, several criteria are crucial. Location remains the primary factor: a property in an A- or B-core, with a high retail share and minimal structural vacancy, typically presents lower risk. Proximity to popular destinations and placement within the main shopping area of a major city further strengthen this profile. Asset characteristics such as size (preferably 70–350 m²), efficient layout, good visibility, and appropriate appearance are essential. A future-proof property must be flexible, suitable for multiple retail formats, and capable of adapting to trends such as omnichannel retail and social-media-driven brand experiences.
Tenant quality also plays a key role: stable or growing tenants from strong sectors, and locations that are strategically important to them, reduce credit risk and increase the likelihood of long-term leases. Sustainability (ESG) is an increasingly important criterion, with energy performance, tenant willingness to share ESG values, and the potential for upgrading the asset contributing to a lower risk profile.
Finally, alternative uses of the asset are important. Urban concentrations require every square metre to be optimally utilised. Where upper-floor retail is less attractive, other functions such as hospitality, creative workspaces, or even residential use come into play. Properties suitable for multiple tenants or functions, with easily accessible upper floors, retain their value better and carry a lower risk of vacancy.
Beyond physical and financial criteria, demand is growing for multifunctional areas where retail is complemented by hospitality, leisure, and residential use. This mix increases dwell time and contributes to the vitality of the area. The result is an investment strategy that focuses not only on returns but also on flexibility, future-proofing, and societal relevance.
FIGURE 10: Analysis of city centre of Rotterdam - 2025
Source: Locatus (2025)
Lange Voort, Oegstgeest
Convenience centres remain stable pillars
The outlook for convenience centres remains positive. Consumer spending is stable, the overall population is growing, and there is a clear shift towards fresh, local, and sustainable products. Supermarkets are investing significantly in energy efficiency and logistical innovations, further strengthening their position as essential service providers and responsible tenants. This provides a solid foundation for long-term rental income and continuity.
At the same time, it is not the supermarkets themselves that are becoming saturated, but the supermarket market. Competition remains strong, prompting chains to focus on scale: supermarkets are expanding in size and offering a broader assortment to meet the demand for convenience and one-stop shopping. Despite this growth, profit margins remain thin, compelling chains to maintain efficiency and cost control. This reinforces the importance of scale advantages and innovative concepts, enabling dominant players to consolidate their positions further.
This expansion of scale is the result of long-term market consolidation, driven by price wars, economies of scale, and the rise of online shopping. Mergers, acquisitions, and brand integrations strengthen the leading supermarkets and make it increasingly difficult for smaller chains to compete. However, there is a limit to this consolidation: any proposed merger requires approval from the Dutch Authority for Consumers and Markets (ACM). The ACM may impose conditions to ensure sufficient competition and also considers geographic distribution. This dynamic is expected to continue in the coming years, further reinforcing the position of the top supermarket chains.
FIGURE 11: Development of SFA versus number of supermarkets
Source: Locatus (2025)
Convenience retail: A continuing key role in the retail landscape
Convenience retail benefited from above-average rental growth during the pandemic, providing an important diversification advantage for the sector. In the coming years, the segment will primarily gain from efficiency, innovative services, and the integration of physical and online channels. Investors who approach the market with vision and discipline, focusing on future-proof locations, strong tenants, and sustainability as an integral part of their strategy, can strengthen their portfolios and achieve solid returns. This ensures that convenience retail remains a stable cornerstone of the Dutch real estate market, supported by societal relevance, economic resilience, and proven performance across varying market conditions.
Investor interest in supermarkets and neighbourhood centres is expected to continue growing, provided pricing remains realistic relative to the quality offered. Developments in the supermarket landscape are likely to result in a consistently risk-averse approach among institutional investors, with strong price pressure at the top end of the supermarket and neighbourhood centre market. While long lease terms provide security, risks associated with lease breaks and end dates must be carefully monitored. Sustainability measures and close collaboration between supermarkets and investors are crucial for achieving quality improvements.
Without targeted investment, neighbourhood centres risk losing their attractiveness and social function over time. Consequently, market participants are increasingly implementing revitalisation programmes that enhance both the real estate and public space. These upgrades focus on functionality, sustainability, and experience, ensuring that centres remain relevant and maintain their role within the community.
Requirements for a future-proof neighbourhood shopping centre
A well-designed neighbourhood shopping centre plays a central role in the daily life of the local community, while also attracting visitors from the wider region through the right tenant mix. The size and composition of the centre are tailored to the catchment area: larger areas require a broader offering, while smaller areas are adequately served by a compact, easy-to-navigate centre. This approach prevents both oversupply and underutilisation, allowing the centre to realise its full potential.
The attractiveness of a centre is strongly linked to its mix of shops and key draws. Supermarkets and daily necessities form the core, while strong anchors such as HEMA, Action, or Blokker attract additional visitors and enhance the revenue potential of surrounding stores. Clustering of stores within the same sector further strengthens appeal and supports higher rental levels.
Successful neighbourhood centres distinguish themselves through a clear positioning within their catchment area. Factors such as the presence of competing supermarkets, the local population’s spending potential, and trends in consumer behaviour play an important role. By offering a distinctive mix of strong food anchors (supermarkets), complementary daily stores, local services, and a pleasant, safe environment with good parking facilities, a neighbourhood centre can attract and retain a steady stream of visitors.
A thorough risk analysis is crucial for maintaining a healthy and future-proof centre. This includes monitoring vacancy rates, store distribution, and the proportion of non-daily retail. Long-term vacancy, particularly in smaller units, may indicate structural issues, while a balanced offering of daily necessities contributes to a vibrant and functional centre.
Sustainability is becoming increasingly important in evaluations. A good energy rating and investments in green initiatives enhance the centre’s value and attractiveness. They reduce operating costs, improve reputation, and ensure the centre remains future-proof.
Conclusion and expected returns
The fundamentals of retail real estate are set to be further strengthened in 2025. While global uncertainties and changing consumer behaviour continue to influence the market, fundamental improvements—such as rising investment volumes, stabilising rental levels, and resilient tenant demand—point to renewed confidence. Institutional investors are showing renewed interest, particularly in high-quality shopping streets and well-performing neighbourhood shopping centres, supported by a more professional, sustainability-driven investment approach.
Market polarisation is becoming increasingly evident: convenience retail and prime comparison retail locations are performing strongly, while less vital areas still face challenges. Flexibility, innovation, and ESG implementation are becoming ever more important factors for both retailers and investors. Despite geopolitical risks and uncertainty around interest rate developments, the market’s adaptability and the strategic repositioning of retail real estate indicate that this asset class has a promising future.
Investors can expect stable and diversified returns across both segments. Comparison retail benefits from selective rental growth at the most resilient shopping street locations, resulting in a balanced mix of rental income and capital appreciation, with an expected total return of around 5.5% over the coming years.
Convenience retail offers long-term income security due to its essential functions and strong, locally embedded tenants. Total returns—expected to be approximately 6.5%—are primarily supported by high initial yields and stable capital growth. These segments complement each other well within a real estate portfolio: comparison retail provides upside potential through value creation at prime locations, while convenience retail ensures reliable cash flows and relatively high initial yields. The more cyclical nature of comparison retail and the stability of convenience retail make both categories clearly complementary within a portfolio.
In conclusion, the Dutch retail market is stabilising around strong daily centres and future-proof urban locations. At the same time, polarisation is increasing, making careful selection of locations and assets essential. For investors focusing on well-positioned properties, with attention to sustainability and a purposeful tenant mix, the outlook remains attractive, providing a solid foundation for stable performance and targeted growth potential in the coming years.
Beursplein, Rotterdam
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