MEGATRENDS
The world is changing at high speed and is facing increasingly complex challenges. In an era where information is abundant and daily headlines often dominate the agenda, it is essential to maintain a long-term perspective. That is where the real opportunities lie for those who are willing to look ahead.
In this Outlook, we identify four powerful Megatrends that will shape the future of real estate investment. These are Demographics & Well-being, Climate & Energy, Technology & Artificial Intelligence, and Geopolitics & The Emerging World Order. Each of these trends has profound implications for how value is created and preserved in real estate.
We show how these developments not only introduce new risks but also open up meaningful opportunities for investors who are prepared to act strategically.
Demographics & Well-being
The Netherlands is expected to surpass 19 million inhabitants around 2037 and will continue to grow thereafter. At the same time, the composition of the population is changing. We are becoming older, more diverse and our housing preferences are shifting. This increases pressure on housing, care, the labour market and public services. It requires strategies that respond to these structural changes and that offer solutions suited for the long term.
FIGURE 1: Population counter: how many people will live in the Netherlands in 2050
Source: CBS (2025)
Demographics are a quiet but powerful force behind this shift. Population growth is driven by migration and higher life expectancy. At the same time, the share of people aged 75 and older is rising rapidly and the balance between working and non-working residents is worsening. This puts pressure on all systems. There is a growing need for more suitable homes within the existing spatial structure and for a stronger network of services. Population ageing increases care needs, while labour supply declines. The labour market is already facing structural shortages in sectors such as healthcare, construction, engineering and education. Labour migrants and international knowledge workers help relieve some of the pressure and add new dynamics, but they also increase demand for public services and facilities.
At the same time, the way we live together is changing. The number of households is growing even faster than the population itself. This is mainly driven by the rise in single-person households. Smaller households place different demands on the built environment. Young people are increasingly choosing flexibility and shared living concepts, while older adults prefer to live independently for longer with access to social interaction. Each group has its own expectations regarding amenities, proximity to services and housing affordability. The built environment must therefore be compact, affordable, accessible and suitable for all life stages, with sufficient facilities nearby.
Urbanisation directs many of the demographic effects. It concentrates housing demand, economic activity, talent and innovation. But it also puts pressure on liveability through housing shortages, congestion and environmental impacts. As a result, the attractiveness of cities will increasingly depend on factors such as affordability, accessibility, safety and well-being. Geographic differences within the Netherlands will also intensify. According to the ‘Ontwerp Nota Ruimte’ (Draft National Spatial Strategy), population and facilities growth will mainly concentrate in the large urban regions and the surrounding second ring, including Utrecht, Eindhoven, Arnhem-Nijmegen and Zwolle, where space, accessibility and economic dynamism come together. The centre of gravity for growth will shift to these intermediate regions, while peripheral areas such as South Limburg, East Groningen and Zeeuws-Vlaanderen will face further population decline and ageing.
This megatrend has its strongest impact on housing and care
Population growth increases the need for housing. But demographic ageing and smaller households change the nature of that demand. There is rising demand for both affordable and lifetime-adaptable homes, ideally located in neighbourhoods where care and everyday services are within reach. Students, starters and single-person households are also looking for affordable and high-quality housing. In cities, proximity to amenities is a premium. In shrinking regions, the challenge is to adapt to demographic change and maintain basic services. Retail plays a key role in meeting daily needs close to home and in strengthening urban vitality. This will become increasingly important in places where demographic effects are strongest. For offices, demographic trends have far less impact on the total amount of required space, because other developments have become more decisive, such as hybrid working and AI-driven productivity gains. As a result, the location and quality of office buildings will matter even more to attract and retain talent. Logistics will continue to be essential for consumers through dense, zero-emission last-mile delivery solutions at the edge of urban areas and along existing logistics corridors.
FIGURE 4: Impact of Demographics & Well-being on real estate sectors
Climate & Energy
Climate and energy are defining the new rules for the built environment. The challenge is threefold: reducing dependence on energy, lowering greenhouse gas emissions and increasing resilience to the effects of climate change. Real estate with excellent sustainability performance will be the financial winner of the future.
Climate impacts are no longer hypothetical. They have become part of everyday reality. Periods of heat, drought and heavy rainfall occur more frequently and with greater intensity and duration. The consequences vary by region and location. Urban areas experience above average heat stress, while low-lying polders face waterlogging and soil subsidence. Sandy regions struggle with drought, and delta areas face salinisation and high peak river discharges. These developments emphasise the importance of explicitly considering regional and local climate risks when making real estate investment decisions.
To mitigate the consequences of climate change in a densely populated delta, adaptation is essential. Real estate plays a central role in this transition. The focus is shifting from damage reduction to regeneration. Buildings and their surroundings are becoming users, producers and climate buffers. Buildings and neighbourhoods are used to retain water and absorb heat, but also to store carbon, for example through timber construction. Buildings can also contribute actively to biodiversity and enhance the quality of the local environment.
Reducing emissions requires more than insulation. The energy transition and further electrification are indispensable. The energy-producing role of buildings will continue to grow through rooftop and façade-integrated solar systems and other smart solutions. At the same time, energy reliability is becoming a hard requirement for enabling development and construction. The role of energy storage, for example through neighbourhood and project batteries, is becoming increasingly important and will be combined with smart energy management that can smooth peak electricity consumption.
CO₂ reduction must be considered across the entire value chain. Emissions are no longer assessed only during the use phase, but also during the development phase of real estate. Circular construction and the use of biobased materials are key steps towards making embodied carbon the new standard.
Meanwhile, the wave of European regulation continues, although the pace has temporarily slowed. The Omnibus legislation and adjustments in implementing rules slightly delay the introduction after earlier steps proved too fast. The direction, however, remains clear. Higher energy requirements, mandatory climate plans and expanded reporting obligations make sustainability a requirement rather than an option. The cost of emissions, environmental damage and water use is becoming more visible. Insurers, lenders and investors therefore place greater emphasis on sustainability and climate adaptation, which increasingly influences real estate values.
Financing and social support for the transition remain critical, because not everyone can or wants to adjust. This applies not only to owner-occupiers, where energy poverty can play a role, but also to rental real estate. In the rental sector, a split incentive arises: the owner bears the investment costs, while the benefits of lower energy costs and a healthier living environment mainly accrue to the tenant.
This megatrend affects the entire built environment
New construction will need to be both energy efficient and demonstrably climate adaptive, with a much larger share of natural and circular materials and dedicated attention to embodied carbon. The challenge is greatest in housing and care, given the sheer size of these segments. The biggest task, however, is making the existing stock Paris-proof across all real estate sectors. This requires renovations with performance guarantees, lower energy use and tangible comfort improvements for users. For investors in housing, care, retail, offices and logistics, climate resilience and energy efficiency are now just as important for value preservation and growth as location and building quality.
FIGURE 5: Impact of Climate & Energy on real estate sectors
Technology & Artificial Intelligence
Technology and digitalisation are advancing at high speed, with Artificial Intelligence (AI) as the main driver. We are entering a phase in which AI is being adopted at very large scale and in a very short period of time, and its value for the economy and society is becoming increasingly visible. The impact of technology and AI affects all areas of daily life: housing, healthcare, retail, work and mobility.
This megatrend manifests itself both directly and indirectly across multiple fronts. AI creates major efficiency gains and productivity improvements, although the effects differ significantly between sectors and countries. According to the IMF, around 40 percent of jobs worldwide will be affected, rising to almost 60 percent in advanced economies. The consequences for the labour market can be both positive and negative, depending on the degree of complementarity or substitution. Certain functions will change or disappear, while new roles will emerge.
The growing focus on technology and AI strengthens demand in technology-driven sectors. This is clearly visible in regions with a strong technological foundation, such as Brainport Eindhoven. Forecasts indicate that the demand for technical and IT professionals in this region will grow by approximately 70,000 jobs by 2032. This development puts increasing pressure on education, energy capacity and digital infrastructure, including data centres. The rise of AI also leads to significantly higher energy consumption. Training large models requires hundreds of megawatts of electricity and increases demand for sustainable energy production and cooling. At the same time, dependence on American Big Tech for cloud and AI platforms is growing, and Europe aims to reduce this reliance through initiatives such as GAIA-X and the EU AI Act. Technological innovations in mobility may also fundamentally reshape the spatial logic of real estate. In addition to electric mobility, autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles will influence travel patterns and parking demand, with consequences for location choices in housing, work and retail.
Within the real estate sector itself, the use of data and AI-driven technologies is accelerating rapidly. Design and construction benefit from lower failure costs and shorter development times. Building management is becoming smarter through sensors, predictive maintenance and more effective use of data. Real estate processes such as leasing, property management and valuation are becoming increasingly automated. Lenders and valuers are working more frequently with performance indicators such as energy labels, BREEAM scores and CRREM intensities. This creates new incentives, such as interest discounts for better-performing buildings or for demonstrable improvements in energy efficiency. Lease contracts are shifting towards performance agreements relating to comfort, occupancy and energy consumption. At the same time, attention to governance is increasing, with a stronger focus on privacy, cybersecurity and data quality.
This megatrend creates a shift in priorities
Operational processes are not the only things that change; user expectations are evolving as well. Investor focus will shift towards real estate that can meet these expectations. Demand for smart, quiet and energy-efficient homes with excellent connectivity and shared work facilities will continue to grow. Healthcare is moving towards hybrid models with more home-based care supported by wearables, remote monitoring and digital triage, strengthened by accessible primary care in the vicinity. In retail, stores are developing into omnichannel hubs with personalised experience and service, while inventory management, pricing and logistics are further optimised. Logistics is undergoing a similar transformation, driven by automation, robotics and the rise of urban microhubs for last-mile delivery. A reliable charging infrastructure is essential in this context. For offices, there is a clear shift in the nature of work, with fewer square metres per FTE but more quality per square metre. Healthy, well-connected locations with future-proof digital infrastructure are becoming the new standard.
FIGURE 6: Impact of Technology & Artificial Intelligence on real estate sectors
Geopolitics & The Emerging World Order
The world is shifting towards a new geopolitical era. Power balances are changing, trade blocs are hardening and economic dependencies are being assessed with increasing scrutiny. This reorganisation of the global order directly affects production, trade and capital flows and shapes the foundation of the new investment landscape.
The period of extremely low interest rates lies behind us. The volatility of recent years, ranging from historically low rates to a sharp increase driven by persistent inflation, has resulted in a clear price correction across many markets. In the Netherlands, most of these effects have now been absorbed, while international markets are still in different phases of repricing. As a result, capital is becoming more cautious worldwide and more focused on return, risk and quality. Investors increasingly choose markets with predictable regulation, transparency and strong institutions. In an environment of geopolitical tensions and currency uncertainty, the value of contractual security, stable cash flows and easily lettable locations rises. This shifts the focus further towards high quality, future proof assets in markets where governance and policy continuity are more robust.
Inflation has eased due to normalising goods and energy prices, but remains persistent in the services sector. Driven by population ageing and structural labour shortages, the underlying inflation level is higher than in the previous decade. This keeps interest rates elevated and limits the potential for yield compression. In this environment, real estate valuation shifts. Yield compression plays only a minor role and value is increasingly determined by operations. Stable rental income, low vacancy, annual indexation and economies of scale are becoming the key drivers of performance.
The link between sustainability and financing is becoming structural. Carbon intensive buildings are becoming more expensive to finance, while energy efficient and future proof buildings benefit from more favourable conditions. Sustainability is therefore no longer a matter of reputation but a hard value factor. Regulation makes performance more transparent and reveals risks more quickly. As a result, ESG factors increasingly determine risk weighting, interest margins and exit yields in real estate valuations. Capital is moving more decisively towards assets with social relevance and long term value.
Impact of this megatrend varies by sector
Investors are focusing more on stable markets with reliable institutions and predictable regulation. Geopolitical tensions, higher financing costs and stricter sustainability requirements increase the value of contractual certainty and transparency. As a result, preferences shift towards markets with a strong governance foundation and the appetite for cross border risk decreases. This increases the relative attractiveness of the European and Dutch investment markets.
The impact differs across sectors, but markets with strong international exposure feel geopolitical pressure most directly. In logistics, disruptions in global supply chains accelerate reshoring, increasing the importance of domestic hubs with strong infrastructure and sufficient energy capacity. In retail, margins come under pressure due to higher international transport and production costs. This strengthens the value of centres with daily convenience retail, strong retail formulas and a solid local customer base. In the office market, demand concentrates even more on cities with reliable digital infrastructure and an attractive business environment. Sustainable, energy efficient and high quality offices remain the preferred choice for internationally operating companies. Residential, and particularly healthcare real estate, is more local in character and therefore less sensitive to international tensions. Here, structural demand, affordability and operational performance determine value, with indexed rents and long term care contracts as the main anchors.
FIGURE 7: Impact of Geopolitics and the Emerging World Order on real estate sectors
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